AoC number
129
Primary domain
ENV
Secondary domain
OP
Description
Independent of demand trends, the ATM system continues to require additional capacity. As demand approaches capacity, airlines increase load factors and reduce schedules, the pressure to improve throughput will increase. Because of these conditions, SESAR and NextGen have been designed to upgrade ATM. While North America and Europe have plans in place to accommodate increased traffic, greater growth rates are in emerging economies in China, India, Middle East, Asia, Africa, CIS, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.
System capacity is projected to grow 4.5 percent in 2011. In the domestic market, mainline carrier capacity is forecast to grow for the first time in three years (up 2.8 percent) while capacity for the regional carriers grows at a faster pace (up 3.8 percent). In the international sector, capacity is forecast to increase in all markets — Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific. Mainline carrier system capacity grows 4.6 percent, while regional carrier capacity grows 3.8 percent.
According to IATA, worldwide freight ton kilometers were up 21.9 percent for the first 11 months of 2010 compared to a 12.7 percent drop for the same period in 2009.
The above forecasts should be surveyed and cross-checked on an annual basis.
Potential hazard
- Adverse operational events due to complexity and unresolved international harmonization for regions experiencing the most rapid growth
- Shortcomings in execution of procedures due to changing of roles and responsibilities for pilot, controllers and others due to new concepts of operation
- Near misses, collisions, and runway incursions/excursions due to new systems such as traffic optimizers that will change operational paradigms and affect flight profiles and dispatch policies, procedures, and other aspects of aircraft operation
- NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: As departing aircraft taxi to runway, ground controller overly relies on observing automation to monitor conformance and spends less time looking out window. Associated human performance hazard: Ground controller fails to observe changing airport conditions that automation is incapable of displaying.
- NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: As departing aircraft taxi to runway, ground controller overly relies on observing automation to monitor conformance and spends less time looking out window. Associated human performance hazards:
- Runway Entrance Light extinguished and flight deck alert extinguishes once the runway is clear. Controller uses anticipated separation and instructs pilot to ignore runway status lights.
- Runway Entrance Light status and controller instruction disagree. Pilot is over-reliant on runway entrance light to determine runway occupancy.
- These changes will require frequent safety and hazard assessment re-evaluation.
Last update
2017-08-28
Corroborating sources and comments
Honeywell is forecasting demand for up to 5,500 civilian-use helicopters through 2018, according to the avionics manufacturer’s 16th Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchase Outlook released at Heli-Expo 2014. Latin America leads all regions in new purchase rates, with up to 32 percent of helicopter fleets scheduled for replacement over the next five years. “Global demand looks steady on the heels of strong 2013 performance,” said Tom Hart, vice president, defense and space sales, Honeywell Aerospace. “Utility helicopter purchase interest is trending upward. Helicopter replacement cycles and increased operating hours in the law enforcement and oil & gas industries help sustain demand in those sectors. Several new platforms are scheduled to enter service in the next few years and this also is expected to bolster overall demand.”
June 24, 2011;
http://twentyfoursevennews.com/gcc/headline/middle-east-to-take-higher-percent-of-commercial-aircraft-sales-deloitte-forecast
http://www.airbus.com/company/market/gmf2010/
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aviation_forecasts/aerospace_forecasts/2011-2031/media/2011%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf
Sawyer, Michael, Ph.D., Berry, Katie, Ph.D., Blanding, Ryan, NextGen Human Hazard Assessment Report, TASC, Inc., Washington, DC, November 2010