AoC number

114

Primary domain

OP

Description

According to Boeing, over the next 20 years, world air cargo traffic will grow 4.2% per year. A driving factor in his growth is e-commerce, along with expanding markets in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The fleet of cargo carriers is projected to expand by 70% by 2035, with 2,370 new freighters added. These aircraft will operate differently from passenger operations.
Meanwhile, the ALPA has forecasted an alternate take on events. In 2016, air cargo suffered from reduced yields and slow growth, below trend expectations. Both world trade and air freight suffer from shrinking growth, with trade growing at a rate of 3% a year. While Widebody aircraft have allowed greater carrying capacity, yields fell between 5 and 6% after January of that year. In the long term, however, the air cargo industry is projected to recapture its momentum, and has demonstrated overall growth from 1970 to 2015.

Potential hazard

  1. Utilization of less well equipped airfields
  2. Operations at low traffic hours i.e. very late or at night (with associated noise issues)
  3. Operations at higher and lower average take-off gross weights
  4. Earlier structural failure (less concern for ride quality resulting in greater exposure to structural stress during turbulence)
  5. Aircraft older than passenger-carrying aircraft (aircraft operate for a full “second” life after cargo conversion)
  6. Load shifts
  7. Mismanagement of hazardous materials

Corroborating sources and comments

http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/lemv

Lockheed High Altitude Airship – July 2011

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/lighter-than-air-vehicles/haa.html

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing-forecasts-world-air-cargo-traffic-to-grow-long-term-as-economy-strengthens-300351580.html (Boeing’s latest forecast for the air cargo traffic industry, current to 2016. Growth rates are forecasted at 4.2% annually over the next twenty years, with e-commerce as a driving factor [reaching $3.6 trillion by 2020]. Additionally, China’s increased market is a factor, with the Asia-Pacific market growing faster than other areas. Fleet projected to expand by 70% by 2035, with 2,370 new freighters.)

http://www.alpa.org/news-and-events/air-line-pilot-magazine/analysis-forecast-air-cargo (More cynical economic forecast from ALPA. In 2016, air cargo suffered from reduced yields and slow growth, below trend expectations. Both world trade and air freight are declining growth-wise, with trade growing at a rate of 3% a year. Only Europe and the Middle East have really increased, with Europe’s annual growth rate at 4.7%. July and August saw the highest growth months, indicating long-term improvement. Widebody aircraft have allowed greater carrying capacity, but yields fell between 5 and 6% after January. E-commerce is growing.)

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1 (Data on air transport of freight by nation, from 1970 to 2015. Demonstrates long-term industry growth, but has no future projection component.)

Last update

2017-08-28 (link to 262 to be added)