Risk Engine


Welcome to the Risk Engine

We are developing the Risk Engine to provide risk analysts with objective data in support of their risk assessment. Estimating probabilities of events and assessing the effect of mitigations are often difficult. To overcome this challenge the risk engine brings together worldwide, best available safety data and operational and safety expertise captured in risk models. This way, you can ensure risks are neither overestimated nor underestimated, and you focus on the most important mitigations.

The risk engine has two parts.

  • On the tab “Risk database” you can request probability estimates of hazards, accident scenarios and accident types, or estimates of severity levels for various accident scenarios.
  • On the “Risk calculation” tab you can run a risk calculation for an accident type (e.g. RE) allowing you to define a scenario.

The Risk Engine is an experimental service for airlines. Our goal is to learn about your needs, which allows us to further develop our data collection, data analysis and risk modelling capabilities in support of the aviation industry. The service is free of charge.

Risk database

Risk database

The Risk Engine provides probability estimates of hazards (unsafe conditions or events), accident scenarios and accident types.

With the forms below you can submit a request for the estimation of the probability of a hazard, accident scenario or accident type. It is also possible to request an estimate for the most likely severity level of a particular accident scenario.

Please fill in the contact form. We strive to respond to your request within five working days.

Risk calculation

Analyse risk of a scenario

The Risk Engine provides estimates for the probability of accident scenarios based on specific operational conditions and risk factors. These conditions and factors can be defined by you for different scenarios.

First select the applicable accident type. In the second step, define the relevant scenario with operational conditions or risk factors. The risk engine will calculate the accident probability per flight.

Probabilities of accident scenarios (risk calculator)

For runway excursion click on the button:

Our vision

Our vision

We have noticed that organisations would like to make better use of data and risk models to support their risk management activities. Also, several (international) initiatives have been launched in recent years to use data and models to identify and understand risks, and to monitor safety performance. For over 20 years NLR has been working on the development of safety risk models and tools that combine operational and safety data in support of quantitative risk assessments. We have observed that these initiatives are not yet sufficiently practical for end users. Therefore, we are researching how our risk models and tools could be aligned with the current issues of safety managers and risk analysts.

We expect these tools will ultimately support risk analysts by enabling the use of data and data driven analysis to complement expert knowledge and experience in risk assessments. This allows for better prioritization of risks and support the decision-making process for mitigating measures whilst considering safety and other business needs. To read more on our approach to risk assessments click here.


What are your thoughts on the use of data for quantitative risk analyses?

Safety institute

NLR Safety Institute

NLRs Safety Institute (the former NLR Air Transport Safety Institute) develops and applies world-class knowledge and expertise to improve air transport safety. We support worldwide all stakeholders in air transport to understand and resolve complex safety implications of the new technologies and operations necessary to accommodate growth in air transport. Amongst our customers are air navigation service providers, aviation authorities, airports and airlines.

Our mission is to deliver pragmatic and well-founded advice to resolve safety and operational issues in a cost-effective manner. Each year we get more than 50 assignments from returning as well as new customers, including air navigation service providers, airports, airlines, and authorities from around the world. Our results are well appreciated, in particular because of our thorough and objective data analysis and our experience in dealing with specialties. Click here to read more about what we do.