R&D case: Space debris resilience

Project: NearSpace Operations Integration

With growing activity in space, higher airspace, and conventional air traffic management (ATM) domains, the likelihood of uncontrolled space object re-entries impacting airspace operations is increasing. Such events pose a potential safety threat to airborne traffic and challenge the efficiency of current ATM procedures.

The challenge

It is difficult to have a specific and exact warning for an expected re-entry event due to the uncertainty of the exact time and location of a space object re-entry. This research investigated how air traffic managers can deal with uncontrolled re-entries from space. The study created a use-case scenario in which a returning space object is detected shortly before its expected entry into Dutch airspace above Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, one of Europe’s busiest hubs.

The solution

The findings show that a structured approach combining improved space object tracking capabilities, predefined risk assessment zones, and collaborative decision-making between ATM and space operations stakeholders can significantly enhance both safety and efficiency during uncontrolled re-entry events. Recommendations are proposed for integrating these procedures into existing ATM frameworks to better prepare for the increasing interaction between the space and aviation domains.

What we did

In 2025, NLR developed a simulation of a space object re-entering Dutch airspace to explore possible operational responses within the limited timeframe. For instance, flights were categorised into affected and non-affected groups to facilitate prioritisation, ensuring that aircraft most at risk or constrained by operational needs received immediate attention.

The study also identified the importance of providing controllers with visualisation tools depicting the predicted impact zone and uncertainty area and time window, allowing for better situational awareness and decision-making under time pressure.